项目名称： 供热系统故障工况热响应特性与动态可靠性建模理论研究

项目编号： No.51508139

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 王芃

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 近年来随着高龄供热系统的增加，故障率逐年增长，供热安全问题广受关注，尤其是既有供热系统的改扩建迫切需求可靠性理论的指导。然而我国供热系统可靠性设计理论薄弱，既有系统的设计并未遵循严格的可靠性标准，传统可靠性指标难以对其有效评价。本项目提出一种基于系统运行动态特性的供热系统动态可靠性评价指标与方法。首先通过构造阀门网络重构故障工况管网，然后基于供热系统热量输送和蓄放热机理建立热力模型，联立故障工况水力模型和调控模型，通过系统仿真研究故障工况系统热响应特性。基于实验平台和现场测试研究，验证仿真模型的合理性和结果的可信度。最后根据故障工况系统的热响应特性构建状态模型及其随机过程，建立动态可靠度指标和基于连续事件模型与蒙特卡洛仿真的求解方法。动态可靠性研究方法突破传统方法的局限，适用于我国既有供热系统的多样性，为完善我国供热系统可靠性设计与安全运行标准体系提供理论支持。

中文关键词： 供热系统；可靠性；故障工况；动态特性

英文摘要： In recent years, with the increase in elderly heating systems, the failure rate is increasing every year and the heating safety becomes more important. Existing heating systems require reliability theory urgently for their renovation and expansion. However, existing heating systems in China are not designed following a strict standard because of the lack of reliability design. Thus, the traditional reliability is invalid to evaluate the reliability of existing heating systems. A dynamic reliability method is put forward based on the dynamic characteristic of heating systems. First, the network under failure conditions is reconstructed by the valve net. Second, the thermodynamic model of heating systems is established by the theory of heat transport and storage in heating systems. Combining the hydraulic model under failure conditions and the control model, simulation is used to analyze the thermal response characteristics under failure conditions. The response characteristics and the rationality of the simulation model are verified by field and laboratory test. Finally, according to the dynamic characteristics under failure conditions, the state model and its stochastic process are formed to establish the dynamic reliability and the solving methods, based on continuous model and Monte Carlo simulation respectively. The dynamic reliability method breaks through the limitations of the traditional method. It is suitable for diverse existing heating systems, and provides theoretical support for improving the reliability design and safe operation standard of heating systems.

英文关键词： heating system;reliability;failure condition;dynamic characteristic