Understanding electrical energy demand at the consumer level plays an important role in planning the distribution of electrical networks and offering of off-peak tariffs, but observing individual consumption patterns is still expensive. On the other hand, aggregated load curves are normally available at the substation level. The proposed methodology separates substation aggregated loads into estimated mean consumption curves, called typical curves, including information given by explanatory variables. In addition, a model-based clustering approach for substations is proposed based on the similarity of their consumers typical curves and covariance structures. The methodology is applied to a real substation load monitoring dataset from the United Kingdom and tested in eight simulated scenarios.

翻译：了解消费者的电力需求在规划电力网络分布和提供超高峰关税方面发挥着重要作用,但观察个人消费模式仍然昂贵,另一方面,在分站一级通常提供综合负载曲线,拟议方法将分站的总负载分为估计平均消费曲线,称为典型曲线,包括解释变量提供的信息;此外,还根据其消费者的典型曲线和共变结构的相似性,提议对分站采用基于模型的集群办法,该方法适用于来自联合王国的、在八个模拟假设情景中测试的实际分站负载监测数据集。