In contemporary educational systems, academic performance indicators play a central role in institutional evaluation and in the interpretation of student trajectories. However, under conditions of rapid technological change, the inferential validity of such indicators becomes increasingly fragile. This article examines how, in adaptive educational systems, statistically correct inferences may nevertheless become systematically misleading when structural conditions change. Adopting a theory-informed interpretive approach, the paper conceptualises technological transitions as exogenous structural perturbations that reconfigure incentives, constraints, and participation strategies, without necessarily implying a deterioration of underlying student capabilities. Drawing on prior empirical evidence for illustrative purposes, the analysis identifies recurring patterns of inferential instability, including level shifts, trend reconfigurations, and increased heterogeneity across cohorts. The argument integrates insights from complex adaptive systems theory, the sociology of quantification, and measurement theory to show how strategic behavioural adaptation can decouple the meaning of performance metrics from the constructs they are intended to represent. The paper concludes by emphasising the need for inferential caution when interpreting educational metrics in contexts of structural and technological transformation.

翻译：在当代教育体系中，学业表现指标在机构评估和学生发展轨迹解读中发挥着核心作用。然而，在技术快速变革的条件下，此类指标的推断效度变得日益脆弱。本文探讨了在自适应教育系统中，当结构性条件发生变化时，统计上正确的推断如何可能依然产生系统性误导。本文采用理论指导下的解释性研究路径，将技术转型概念化为外生结构性扰动——这种扰动会重新配置激励、约束与参与策略，而不必然意味着学生底层能力的退化。通过援引既有实证证据进行例证，本分析识别出推断不稳定的反复出现模式，包括水平偏移、趋势重构以及跨队列异质性的增强。该论证整合了复杂自适应系统理论、量化社会学及测量理论的洞见，以揭示策略性行为适应如何使绩效指标的意义与其预期表征的构念发生脱钩。本文最后强调，在结构与技术转型的语境中解读教育指标时，必须保持推断层面的审慎态度。