We develop a sensitivity analysis for transformer attention in a geometry aligned with tokenwise computation. Our main result is the exact identity $\|J_τ(u)\|_{\infty\to1}=θ(p)/τ$ for the Jacobian $J_τ(u)$ of the tempered softmax $u\mapsto\mathrm{softmax}(u/τ)$, where $θ(p)=4\max_{S\subseteq[L]}p(S)(1-p(S))$ measures how evenly the attention distribution can be bisected rather than how concentrated it is. We combine this identity with a block-$\infty$/RMS norm under which row-stochastic attention mixing is nonexpansive. This yields a distribution-aware local Jacobian bound for multi-head attention and a sequence-length-independent Lipschitz bound on bounded input sets, with explicit dependence on width, input magnitude, temperature, and projection norms. We also identify a structural distinction between normalization placements: a pre-LN residual-sublayer Jacobian contains an additive identity term, whereas a post-LN residual-sublayer Jacobian does not. A LayerNorm projection lemma gives a sufficient condition under which the LayerNorm-only term in the post-LN expansion contracts geometrically; the condition is not tested by our experiments. Across three Pre-LN early-training runs of $774$M-parameter models, attention becomes substantially more concentrated while the median lower-bound certificate for $θ(p)$ remains near one at every sampled layer and checkpoint. This certifies near-maximal exact sensitivity for at least half of the sampled rows within each layer. A minority of rows enters a dominant-atom regime with lower exact sensitivity, consistent with the deterministic relationship between $p_{\max}$ and $θ(p)$.

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