Factors contributing to social inequalities are also associated with negative mental health outcomes leading to disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which can evaluate the impact of policies on population well-being, accounting for spatial/temporal dependencies. Building on an interrupted time series framework, our approach can evaluate how different profiles of individuals are affected in different ways, whilst accounting for their uncertainty. We apply the framework to assess the impact of the United Kingdoms welfare reform, which took place throughout the 2010s, on mental well-being using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. The additional depth of knowledge is essential for effective evaluation of current policy and implementation of future policy.

翻译：社会不平等的因素也与负面心理健康结果相关，导致心理健康差距。我们提出一种贝叶斯层次模型，能够评估政策对人口福祉的影响，同时考虑空间/时间依赖性。基于中断时间序列框架，我们的方法可以评估不同个体特征如何受到不同方式的影响，同时考虑其不确定性。我们应用该框架，利用英国家庭纵向研究数据，评估2010年代英国福利改革对心理健康的影响。这种更深层次的知识对于有效评估现行政策和实施未来政策至关重要。