The diffusion of artificial intelligence, particularly generative models, is expected to transform labor markets in uneven ways across sectors, territories, and social groups. This paper proposes a methodological framework to estimate the potential exposure of employment to AI using sector based data, addressing the limitations of occupation centered approaches in the Spanish context. By constructing an AI CNAE incidence matrix and applying it to provincial employment data for the period 2021 to 2023, we provide a territorial and gender disaggregated assessment of AI exposure across Spain. The results reveal stable structural patterns, with higher exposure in metropolitan and service oriented regions and a consistent gender gap, as female employment exhibits higher exposure in all territories. Rather than predicting job displacement, the framework offers a structural perspective on where AI is most likely to reshape work and skill demands, supporting evidence based policy and strategic planning.

翻译：人工智能（特别是生成式模型）的普及预计将以不均衡的方式改变不同行业、地区和社会群体的劳动力市场。本文提出了一种基于行业数据估算就业岗位受人工智能潜在影响的方法框架，旨在解决西班牙背景下以职业为中心的研究方法存在的局限性。通过构建人工智能CNAE影响矩阵，并将其应用于2021至2023年各省就业数据，我们提供了西班牙各地区就业暴露度的性别与地域分解评估。结果显示稳定的结构性模式：大都市和服务业导向区域暴露度更高，且存在持续的性别差异——所有地区中女性就业暴露度均更高。该框架并非预测岗位流失，而是从结构层面揭示人工智能最可能重塑工作内容和技能需求的领域，为循证政策和战略规划提供支持。