Modern large language models are pretrained on massive datasets, making it difficult to prevent benchmark data from entering their training sets and undermining the reliability of evaluation results. Reliable evaluation is particularly challenging for base models, whose limited instruction-following ability complicates task-based assessment. We introduce Uncheatable Eval, a dynamic benchmark that regularly collects newly published text to evaluate base language models and reduce the risk of data contamination. Drawing on the relationship between a model's predictive ability and its ability to compress data losslessly, we use compression rate to evaluate how well models predict new text. We evaluate 80 models across 14 text categories, study how compression changes with context length, and examine the correlation between compression rate and zero-shot MMLU accuracy. Our results yield three main findings: (1) compression performance follows a consistent scaling trend with model size; (2) attention-based, hybrid, and recurrent models differ in how their compression performance changes as more context becomes available; and (3) lower compression rates are strongly associated with higher zero-shot MMLU accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/Jellyfish042/uncheatable_eval.

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