Density dependence occurs at the individual level but is often evaluated at the population level, leading to difficulties or even controversies in detecting such a process. Bayesian individual-based models such as spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide opportunities to study density dependence at the individual level, but such an approach remains to be developed and evaluated. In this study, we developed a SCR model that links habitat use to apparent survival and recruitment through density dependent processes at the individual level. Using simulations, we found that the model can properly inform habitat use, but tends to underestimate the effect of density dependence on apparent survival and recruitment. The reason for such underestimations is likely due to the fact that SCR models have difficulties in identifying the locations of unobserved individuals while assuming they are uniformly distributed. How to accurately estimate the locations of unobserved individuals, and thus density dependence, remains a challenging topic in spatial statistics and statistical ecology.
翻译:密度依赖发生于个体层面,但常在种群层面进行评估,导致检测此类过程存在困难甚至争议。基于贝叶斯理论的个体模型(如空间捕获-再捕获模型)为在个体层面研究密度依赖提供了可能,但此类方法仍有待开发与验证。本研究构建了一种空间捕获-再捕获模型,该模型通过个体层面的密度依赖过程将栖息地利用与表观存活率及种群补充相耦合。通过模拟实验发现,该模型能有效反映栖息地利用状况,但倾向于低估密度依赖对表观存活率及种群补充的影响。这种低估现象可能源于空间捕获-再捕获模型在假设未观测个体均匀分布时,难以准确识别其空间位置。如何精确估计未观测个体的空间分布进而准确评估密度依赖,仍是空间统计学与统计生态学领域具有挑战性的课题。