Campaign analysis is an integral part of American democracy and has many complexities in its dynamics. Experts have long sought to understand these dynamics and evaluate campaign performance using a variety of techniques. We explore campaign financing and standing in the polls as two components of campaign performance in the context of the 2020 Democratic primaries. We show where these measures exhibit represent similar dynamics and where they differ. We focus on identifying change points in the trend for all candidates using joinpoint regression models. We find how these change points identify major events such as failure or success in a debate. Joinpoint regression reveals who the voters support when they stop supporting a specific candidate. This study demonstrates the value of joinpoint regression in political campaign analysis and it represents a crossover of this technique into the political domain building a foundation for continued exploration and use of this method.

翻译：作为2020年民主初选的竞选表现的两个组成部分,我们探索竞选资金和在投票中站立,以作为2020年民主初选的竞选表现的两个组成部分。我们展示了这些措施在哪些方面表现出了相似的动态和不同之处。我们侧重于通过联合点回归模式为所有候选人确定趋势的变化点。我们发现这些变化点如何在辩论中发现失败或成功等重大事件。联合点回归揭示了选民停止支持某个特定候选人时支持谁。这项研究显示了联合点政治竞选分析回归的价值,并代表了这一技术在政治领域的交叉性,为继续探索和使用这一方法奠定了基础。