We present a nonparametric statistical test for determining whether an agent is following a given mixed strategy in a repeated strategic-form game given samples of the agent's play. This involves two components: determining whether the agent's frequencies of pure strategies are sufficiently close to the target frequencies, and determining whether the pure strategies selected are independent between different game iterations. Our integrated test involves applying a chi-squared goodness of fit test for the first component and a generalized Wald-Wolfowitz runs test for the second component. The results from both tests are combined using Bonferroni correction to produce a complete test for a given significance level $\alpha.$ We applied the test to publicly available data of human rock-paper-scissors play. The data consists of 50 iterations of play for 500 human players. We test with a null hypothesis that the players are following a uniform random strategy independently at each game iteration. Using a significance level of $\alpha = 0.05$, we conclude that 305 (61%) of the subjects are following the target strategy.
翻译:我们提出了一种非参数统计检验方法,用于在重复策略型博弈中,基于智能体的博弈样本判断其是否遵循给定的混合策略。该方法包含两个组成部分:检验智能体纯策略频率是否足够接近目标频率,以及检验不同博弈轮次中选择的纯策略是否相互独立。我们的综合检验首先对第一个组成部分应用卡方拟合优度检验,对第二个组成部分应用广义Wald-Wolfowitz游程检验。两个检验的结果通过Bonferroni校正进行组合,以在给定显著性水平$\alpha$下生成完整的检验。我们将该方法应用于公开的人类剪刀石头布博弈数据,该数据包含500名人类玩家各进行50轮博弈的样本。我们以零假设(每个博弈轮次中玩家独立遵循均匀随机策略)进行检验。在显著性水平$\alpha = 0.05$下,我们得出结论:305名(占61%)受试者遵循了目标策略。