The key-value (KV) cache is the dominant memory bottleneck of long-context large language model (LLM) inference, growing linearly with context length. We show that uniform KV quantization on a fractional-bit grid does not degrade gracefully: under a prespecified multi-seed statistical protocol, Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct with an affine quantizer is statistically indistinguishable from FP16 KV down to 2.322 code bits/value and collapses at 2.0 bits - a quality cliff in (2.0, 2.322] that reappears in generation-time quantization and multi-turn dialogue and transfers to Mistral-7B. The cliff reframes importance-aware mixed precision: above it, eight model-internal importance indicators are statistically interchangeable, so the benefit of mixing is grid interpolation, reaching average precisions uniform quantization cannot realize. SemKV preserves every token, ranks tokens by a model-internal score, and assigns two adjacent above-cliff precisions, achieving a measured 6.0x storage reduction with no statistically detectable quality difference from full KV (n=900, three seeds), and outperforming FP16 token pruning granted a 1.5x larger memory budget. Replacing the affine base with a distortion-optimized quantizer (TurboQuant-MSE) lowers the cliff in every protocol tested, raising the no-detectable-loss operating point to 7.9x. The recipe: measure the cliff for the target deployment setting, then interpolate above it.

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