We develop a statistical theory of temporal learnability in recurrent neural networks, quantifying the maximal temporal horizon $\mathcal{H}_N$ over which gradient-based learning can recover lag-dependent structure at finite sample size $N$. The theory is built on the effective learning rate envelope $f(\ell)$, a function that captures how gating mechanisms and adaptive optimizers jointly shape the coupling between state-space dynamics and parameter updates during Backpropagation Through Time. Under heavy-tailed ($α$-stable) fluctuations, where empirical averages concentrate at rate $N^{-1/κ_α}$ with $κ_α= α/(α-1)$, the interplay between envelope decay and statistical concentration yields explicit scaling laws for the growth of $\mathcal{H}_N$: logarithmic, polynomial, and exponential temporal learning regimes emerge according to the decay law of $f(\ell)$. These results identify envelope decay as the key determinant of temporal learnability. Slower attenuation of $f(\ell)$ enlarges $\mathcal{H}_N$, while heavy-tailed fluctuations compress it by weakening statistical concentration. Moreover, envelope geometry outweighs dataset size: slowing the envelope's decay enlarges $\mathcal{H}_N$ more than adding data, so more complex architectures that realize slower-decaying envelopes can be more data-efficient than simpler ones. Experiments across multiple gated architectures and optimizers corroborate these structural predictions.

翻译：暂无翻译