IoT devices are present in many, especially corporate and sensitive, networks and regularly introduce security risks due to slow vendor responses to vulnerabilities and high difficulty of patching. In this paper, we want to evaluate to what extent the development of future risk of IoT devices due to new and unpatched vulnerabilities can be predicted based on historic information. For this analysis, we build on existing prediction algorithms available in the SAFER framework (prophet and ARIMA) which we evaluate by means of a large data-set of vulnerabilities and patches from 793 IoT devices. Our analysis shows that the SAFER framework can predict a correct future risk for 91% of the devices, demonstrating its applicability. We conclude that this approach is a reliable means for network operators to efficiently detect and act on risks emanating from IoT devices in their networks.

翻译：由于供应商对弱点的反应迟缓和修补难度大,互联网装置存在于许多网络中,特别是公司和敏感网络中,并经常带来安全风险,因为供应商对弱点的反应迟缓和修补困难很大。在本文件中,我们想评估根据历史信息,在多大程度上可以预测未来由于新的和未排出的脆弱性而开发的互联网装置的风险。我们为进行这一分析,我们利用安全网框架内现有的预测算法(预言和ARIMA),我们用793个互联网装置的弱点和补补丁的庞大数据集来评估。我们的分析表明,安全网框架可以预测91%的装置未来正确风险,表明其适用性。我们的结论是,这一方法是网络操作者有效探测和应对其网络内互联网装置所产生风险的可靠手段。