Transport engineers employ various interventions to enhance traffic-network performance. Quantifying the impacts of Cycle Superhighways is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such an intervention over the transport network. Treatment effects on asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions are better reflected at extreme tails rather than at the median. We propose a novel method to estimate the treatment effect at extreme tails incorporating heavy-tailed features in the outcome distribution. The analysis of London transport data using the proposed method indicates that the extreme traffic flow increased substantially after Cycle Superhighways came into operation.

翻译：交通工程师采用多种干预措施来提升交通网络性能。由于此类干预措施在交通网络中的非随机分配，量化自行车高速路的影响变得复杂。对于非对称和重尾分布的处理效应，极端尾部比中位数更能反映其影响。我们提出了一种新方法，用于估计极端尾部的处理效应，该方法考虑了结果分布中的重尾特征。通过使用所提出的方法对伦敦交通数据进行分析表明，自行车高速路投入运营后，极端交通流量显著增加。