Fantasy basketball has a rich underlying mathematical structure which makes optimal drafting strategy unclear. The most commonly used heuristic, "Z-score" ranking, is appropriate only with the unrealistic condition that weekly player performance is known exactly beforehand. An alternative heuristic is derived by adjusting the assumptions that justify Z-scores to incorporate uncertainty in weekly performance. It is dubbed the "G-score", and it outperforms the traditional Z-score approach in simulations. A more sophisticated algorithm is also derived, which dynamically adapts to previously chosen players to create a cohesive team. It is dubbed "H-scoring" and outperforms both Z-score and G-score.
翻译:梦幻篮球具有丰富的潜在数学结构,这使得最佳选秀策略并不明确。最常用的启发式方法“Z分数”排名仅适用于一种不切实际的条件——即每周球员表现事先精确已知。通过调整支持Z分数的假设以纳入每周表现的不确定性,推导出另一种启发式方法。该法被称为“G分数”,在模拟中优于传统的Z分数方法。此外,还推导出一种更复杂的算法,它能动态适应先前选中的球员,以构建具有凝聚力的团队。该算法被称为“H评分”,其表现优于Z分数和G分数。