We consider the problem of computing the probability of existence of a source-to-target path or walk satisfying a given length constraint in an input probabilistic graph. The length constraints we consider can require the length to be at least $\ell$, at most $\ell$, or exactly $\ell$, for $\ell$ a target length given as input. The probabilistic graphs that we consider are directed graphs where each edge is annotated with an independent probability of existence. As this task is generally intractable (#P-hard), we aim for algorithms applying to input graphs that are assumed to be of bounded treewidth. We classify the complexity landscape of these problems: - We give an XP algorithm parameterised by treewidth to compute the probability that an input probabilistic graph contains a source-to-target path/walk of length $\geq \ell$, and do the same for a path/walk of length $\leq \ell$. - We show that the four problems mentioned in the last item are W[1]-hard parameterised by pathwidth (hence not FPT under the standard assumption that FPT$\neq$W[1]). This is in contrast to the case of non-probabilistic graphs, where the corresponding problems were known to be FPT parameterised by treewidth; and to the connectivity problem (and more generally MSO evaluation) on probabilistic graphs, where the same was known. - Surprisingly, we show that it is #P-hard to compute the probability that an input graph contains a source-to-target path/walk of length exactly $\ell$, even on graphs of pathwidth $2$. By contrast, all our problems are tractable on graphs of treewidth $1$. - Last, we investigate the complexity of our problems when the edges can carry weights. This causes all our problems to become #P-hard already on pathwidth-2 graphs, and causes specifically the ``exactly $\ell$'' walk problem to be #P-hard even on pathwidth-1 graphs.

翻译：暂无翻译