The rise of conspiracy theories has created far-reaching societal harm in the public discourse by eroding trust and fueling polarization. Beyond this public impact lies a deeply personal toll on the friends and families of conspiracy believers, a dimension often overlooked in large-scale computational research. This study fills this gap by systematically mapping radicalization journeys and quantifying the associated emotional toll inflicted on loved ones. We use the prominent case of QAnon as a case study, analyzing 12747 narratives from the r/QAnonCasualties support community through a novel mixed-methods approach. First, we use topic modeling (BERTopic) to map the radicalization trajectories, identifying key pre-existing conditions, triggers, and post-radicalization characteristics. From this, we apply an LDA-based graphical model to uncover six recurring archetypes of QAnon adherents, which we term "radicalization personas." Finally, using LLM-assisted emotion detection and regression modeling, we link these personas to the specific emotional toll reported by narrators. Our findings reveal that these personas are not just descriptive; they are powerful predictors of the specific emotional harms experienced by narrators. Radicalization perceived as a deliberate ideological choice is associated with narrator anger and disgust, while those marked by personal and cognitive collapse are linked to fear and sadness. This work provides the first empirical framework for understanding radicalization as a relational phenomenon, offering a vital roadmap for researchers and practitioners to navigate its interpersonal fallout.
翻译:阴谋论的兴起通过侵蚀信任和加剧两极分化,在公共话语中造成了深远的社会危害。除了这种公共影响之外,阴谋论信奉者的亲友还承受着深刻的个人代价,这一维度在大规模计算研究中常被忽视。本研究填补了这一空白,通过系统描绘激进化历程并量化其对亲人造成的情感代价。我们以著名的QAnon案例作为研究对象,采用新颖的混合方法分析了来自r/QAnonCasualties支持社区的12747篇叙述。首先,我们使用主题建模(BERTopic)来描绘激进化轨迹,识别关键的先决条件、触发因素以及激进化后的特征。在此基础上,我们应用基于LDA的图模型,揭示了QAnon追随者的六种反复出现的原型,我们称之为"激进化人格"。最后,利用LLM辅助的情感检测和回归建模,我们将这些人格与叙述者报告的具体情感代价联系起来。我们的研究结果表明,这些人格不仅仅是描述性的;它们是预测叙述者所经历的具体情感伤害的有力指标。被感知为蓄意意识形态选择的激进化与叙述者的愤怒和厌恶相关,而那些以个人和认知崩溃为特征的激进化则与恐惧和悲伤相关联。这项工作为理解激进化作为一种关系现象提供了首个实证框架,为研究人员和实践者应对其人际关系的附带影响提供了重要的路线图。