We propose local prediction pools as a method for combining the predictive distributions of a set of experts whose predictive abilities are believed to vary locally with respect to a set of pooling variables. To estimate the local predictive ability of each expert, we introduce the simple, fast, and interpretable caliper method. Expert pooling weights from the local prediction pool approaches the equal weight solution whenever there is little data on local predictive performance, making the pools robust and adaptive. Local prediction pools are shown to outperform the widely used optimal linear pools in a macroeconomic forecasting evaluation, and in predicting daily bike usage for a bike rental company.

翻译：我们提议将当地预测人才库作为综合一套专家预测分布的一种方法,这些专家的预测能力被认为因一组集合变量而在当地有所不同。为了估计每个专家的当地预测能力,我们采用了简单、快速和可解释的卡利珀法。 当地预测人才库的专家集合权重在缺乏关于当地预测性能的数据时接近同等权重的解决办法,使人才库强大和适应性强。 当地预测人才库在宏观经济预测评估中和预测自行车租用公司的日常使用方面表现优于广泛使用的最佳线性人才库。