Despite persistent efforts to understand the dynamics of creativity of scientists over careers in terms of productivity, impact, and prize, little is known about the dynamics of scientists' disruptive efforts that affect individual academic careers and drive scientific advance. Drawing on millions of data over six decades and across nineteen disciplines, associating the publication records of individual scientists with the disruption index, we systematically quantify the temporal pattern of disruptive ideas over individual scientific careers, providing a detailed understanding of the macro phenomenon of scientific stagnation from the individual perspective. We start by checking the relationship between disruption-based and citation-based publication profiles. Next, we observe the finite inequality in the disruptive productivity of scientists, diminishing gradually as the level of disruption increases. We then identify the initial burst phenomenon in disruption dynamics. It is further revealed that while early engagement in high disruption frictions away initial productivity, compared to initial advantage in productivity or impact, initial high disruption ensures more subsequent academic viability evidenced by a longer career span and relatively final higher productivity, but does not necessarily guarantee academic success throughout careers. Further analysis shows that increasing disruptive work is uncorrelated to overall productivity but negatively correlated with the overall impact. However, increasing disruptive work in the early career is associated with higher overall productivity, yet lower overall productivity in the later career. Our research underscores the urgent need for a policy shift that encourages a balance between the pursuit of disruptive efforts and the achievement of impactful outcomes.
翻译:尽管学界持续努力从生产力、影响力和获奖情况等角度理解科学家职业生涯中的创造力动态,但关于影响个人学术生涯并推动科学进步的科学家颠覆性努力的动态机制,人们知之甚少。基于跨越六十年、涵盖十九个学科的数百万条数据,通过将科学家的发表记录与颠覆性指数相关联,我们系统量化了颠覆性思想在个人科学生涯中的时间分布模式,从而从个体视角为科学停滞这一宏观现象提供了细致的理解。我们首先检验了基于颠覆性的发表特征与基于引用的发表特征之间的关系。接着,我们观察到科学家颠覆性生产力存在有限的不平等性,且这种不平等性随着颠覆性水平的提升而逐渐减弱。随后,我们识别出颠覆性动态中的初始爆发现象。进一步研究表明,虽然早期从事高颠覆性工作会损耗初始生产力,但与初始生产力或影响力优势相比,初始高颠覆性能确保更强的后续学术可持续性——这体现在更长的职业生涯和相对最终更高的生产力上,但并不能保证整个职业生涯的学术成功。更深入的分析显示,增加颠覆性工作与整体生产力无相关性,但与整体影响力呈负相关。然而,在职业生涯早期增加颠覆性工作与更高的整体生产力相关,而在职业生涯后期则与更低的整体生产力相关。我们的研究强调,迫切需要政策转向以鼓励在追求颠覆性努力与取得高影响力成果之间寻求平衡。