This paper presents a comprehensive scientometric analysis of the long-term impact of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on the nation scientific development. Using Scopus-indexed data from 1960 to 2024, we benchmark Iran publication trajectory against a carefully selected peer group representing diverse development models, established scientific leaders, Netherlands, stable regional powers, Israel, and high-growth, Asian Tigers, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore alongside Greece and China. The analysis reveals a stark divergence, in the late 1970s, Iran scientific output surpassed that of South Korea, China and Taiwan. The revolution, however, precipitated a collapse, followed by a lost decade of stagnation, precisely when its Asian peers began an unprecedented, state driven ascent. We employ counterfactual models based on pre revolutionary growth trends to quantify the resulting knowledge deficit. The findings suggest that, in an alternate, stable timeline, Iran scientific output could have rivaled South Korea today. We further outline a research agenda to analyze normalized impact metrics, such as FWCI, and collaboration patterns, complementing our findings on publication volume. By contextualizing Iran unique trajectory, this study contributes to a broader understanding of the divergent recovery patterns exhibited by national scientific systems following profound political shocks, offering insights into the enduring consequences of historical disruptions on the global scientific landscape.

翻译：本文对1979年伊朗革命对国家科学发展的长期影响进行了全面的科学计量分析。基于Scopus数据库1960年至2024年的数据，我们将伊朗的论文发表轨迹与一组精心选取的、代表不同发展模式的参照国家进行对比：包括成熟的科学领导者（荷兰）、稳定的地区强国（以色列）、高速增长的亚洲新兴经济体（韩国、台湾、新加坡）以及希腊和中国。分析揭示了一个显著的分化趋势：在1970年代末期，伊朗的科研产出曾超过韩国、中国和台湾。然而，革命引发了一场崩溃，随后是长达十年的停滞期，而恰恰在此期间，其亚洲同行开始了前所未有的、国家驱动下的科学崛起。我们基于革命前的增长趋势构建反事实模型，以量化由此产生的知识赤字。研究结果表明，在一个稳定发展的替代时间线上，伊朗如今的科研产出本可与韩国相匹敌。我们进一步提出了一个研究议程，旨在分析标准化影响力指标（如FWCI）与合作模式，以补充我们在论文数量方面的发现。通过将伊朗独特的发展轨迹置于具体背景中，本研究有助于更广泛地理解国家科学体系在经历深刻政治冲击后表现出的差异化复苏模式，并为历史性断裂对全球科学格局造成的持久影响提供了洞见。