It is well known that a Bayesian's probability forecast for the future observations should form a probability measure in order to satisfy natural conditions of coherency. The topic of this paper is the evolution of the Bayesian's probability measure in time. We model the process of updating the Bayesian's beliefs in terms of prediction markets. The resulting picture is adapted to forecasting several steps ahead and making almost optimal decisions.

翻译：众所周知，为满足自然的一致性条件，贝叶斯主义者对未来观测的概率预测应构成一个概率测度。本文的研究主题是贝叶斯主义者概率测度随时间演化的过程。我们通过预测市场来建模贝叶斯主义者的信念更新过程。由此产生的图景适用于多步超前预测，并能做出近乎最优的决策。