This paper introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and then reminds the reader of a simple Monte Carlo algorithm that can be used to calculate the posterior distribution of a system's reliability. This algorithm is especially useful when a system's reliability is modeled through the reliability of its subcomponents, yet only system-level data is available.
翻译:本文介绍并综述了贝叶斯可靠性分析中的若干原理与方法。重点探讨了成功/失败数据的分析方法,并回顾了一种可用于计算系统可靠性后验分布的简易蒙特卡洛算法。该算法在通过子系统可靠性建立系统可靠性模型、却仅能获取系统级数据时尤为实用。