This paper develops a political-economy model of artificial general intelligence (AGI) as a technology that progressively substitutes living labor with machine-based productive systems. The model studies the transition from the first moment at which AGI becomes economically capable of replacing labor to the later moment at which AGI becomes technically and actually capable of near-complete replacement. The central distinction is between technical substitutability and actual adoption. Technical substitutability is the feasible replacement ceiling implied by the state of AGI capability, whereas actual adoption is the realized replacement share chosen under cost, profitability, and adoption frictions. Under the strict value-theoretic assumption that AGI transfers value but does not itself create new value, deeper AGI adoption raises the organic composition of capital, reduces the quantity of living labor when adoption outpaces the creation of new labor fields, compresses the source of surplus value, and places downward pressure on the social rate of profit. In the limiting case in which actual AGI adoption approaches complete substitution and new labor fields fail to compensate for displaced labor, living labor tends to zero, surplus value tends to zero, and the profit rate tends to zero. The model therefore identifies near-complete AGI substitution not merely as an efficiency transition, but as a boundary case for value production under a strict political-economy theory of value.

翻译：本文构建了一个将通用人工智能（AGI）视为逐步以机器生产系统替代活劳动的技术政治经济学模型。该模型研究了从AGI首次具备经济替代劳动能力，到其技术上完全实现近替代能力的过渡阶段。核心区分在于技术可替代性与实际采纳程度：技术可替代性是由AGI能力状态所决定的可行替代上限，而实际采纳则是在成本、盈利能力和采纳摩擦约束下实现的替代份额。基于AGI转移价值但不创造新价值的严格价值理论假设，更深入的AGI采纳将提高资本有机构成，当采纳速度超越新劳动领域创造速度时压缩活劳动量，挤压剩余价值源泉，并对社会利润率形成下行压力。在AGI实际采纳接近完全替代且新劳动领域未能补偿被替代劳动的极限情形下，活劳动趋于零，剩余价值趋于零，利润率趋于零。因此，该模型揭示了AGI近完全替代不仅是效率转型，更是严格政治经济学价值理论下价值生产的边界情形。