Membership inference on large language models (LLMs) aims to determine whether a given text sample was included in an LLM's training data, without access to its training corpus. Despite recent progress, existing benchmarks suffer from three limitations: limited coverage of training stages, insufficient distributional alignment between members and non-members, and lack of rigorous filtering of non-members against the training corpus. To address these limitations, we propose OLMo-Detect, a multi-stage, confounder-controlled benchmark built upon the fully open OLMo 2 pipeline. OLMo-Detect spans pre-training, mid-training, and post-training, explicitly aligns members and non-members on three key axes, and rigorously filters non-members via infini-gram. To assess robustness to distribution shifts, we further introduce OLMo-Detect (Shifted), a variant where members are misaligned with non-members. We evaluate 15 unsupervised and 3 supervised membership inference attacks (MIAs) across the OLMo 2 family, finding that: (i) overall performance is limited: the best unsupervised and supervised MIAs both reach an AUC of only 0.68, and supervised MIAs degrade under cross-domain evaluation; (ii) MIA performance peaks at mid-training and is lower at pre-training and post-training, a pattern driven by data type rather than a stage effect: curated math data is far more detectable than other types; (iii) overall scores improve from 1B to 13B but plateau at 32B; and (iv) no unsupervised MIA is robust to distribution shifts, with AUCs shifting by up to 0.42. Finally, we find that our findings on OLMo 2 generalize to OLMo 3 and non-OLMo models.

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