Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are often evaluated through headline indicators such as total value locked (TVL) or on-chain asset value. However, a large asset base does not necessarily imply low risk, since tokenized assets may remain illiquid, weakly traded, or highly concentrated among a small number of holders. Using public data from RWA.xyz, this paper develops an empirical and explainable risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets. The framework evaluates three dimensions of risk: liquidity risk $L$, concentration risk $C$, and market-quality risk $M$. These risk dimensions are constructed from observable indicators, including turnover, holder distribution, active-address activity, transfer frequency, and network concentration measured through Herfindahl indices. The analysis shows that several RWA tokens with substantial on-chain value exhibit high empirical risk because they combine limited transfer activity, low turnover, and concentrated ownership structures. In contrast, assets with broader participation and stronger on-chain activity display lower liquidity and concentration risk, even when their headline asset values are smaller. The findings demonstrate that TVL alone can obscure important risks in tokenized asset markets. By providing a transparent and data-driven risk scoring approach, this paper contributes to the empirical assessment of RWA liquidity and offers a practical basis for comparing tokenized assets beyond headline valuation metrics.
翻译:代币化现实世界资产通常通过总锁定价值或链上资产价值等宏观指标进行评估。然而,庞大的资产规模并不必然意味着低风险,因为代币化资产可能仍面临流动性不足、交易活跃度低或由少数持有者高度集中的问题。本文基于RWA.xyz的公开数据,构建了一个面向代币化RWA市场的经验性、可解释的风险评分框架。该框架评估三个维度的风险:流动性风险$L$、集中度风险$C$和市场质量风险$M$。这些风险维度由可观测指标构成,包括换手率、持有者分布、活跃地址行为、转账频率以及通过赫芬达尔指数衡量的网络集中度。分析表明,若干具有可观链上价值的RWA代币因交易活动有限、换手率低且所有权结构集中而呈现出高经验风险。相比之下,参与更广泛、链上活动更强的资产(即便其宏观资产价值较小)展现更低的流动性与集中度风险。研究发现表明,仅凭TVL可能掩盖代币化资产市场中的重要风险。通过提供透明且数据驱动的风险评分方法,本文为代币化RWA流动性的实证评估做出贡献,并为超越宏观估值指标比较代币化资产提供了实用基础。