Even though having more possession does not necessarily lead to winning, teams like Manchester City, Liverpool, and Leeds United notably have tried to recover the ball quickly after they lost it over the past few years. Nowadays, some of the top managers in the world apply high-pressing styles, and concepts such as the five-second rule, usually credited to Guardiola, have been spreading out [9][10], becoming a fundamental part of how lots of teams have played over the recent years. Expressions like "don't let them breathe" and "get the ball back as soon as possible" are often heard in the media [4][5][6], but what are the actions that most lead to a change in possession? What is the influence of a team's positioning on the ball recovery? Which are the players that more often collapse when under pressure? Can we evaluate the defensive dynamics of teams that do not necessarily press the player in possession as intensely as those mentioned above? We try to answer those and other questions in this paper by creating a Generalized Action based Ball Recovery model (GABR) using Statsbomb 360$^\circ$ data.
翻译:尽管拥有更多控球权并不必然导致胜利,但曼城、利物浦和利兹联等球队近年来在失去球权后明显试图快速夺回球权。如今,一些世界顶级教练采用高压逼抢战术,而通常归功于瓜迪奥拉的"五秒规则"等概念[9][10]已广泛传播,成为近年来众多球队战术体系的基础。媒体中频繁出现"不让他们喘息"和"尽快夺回球权"等表述[4][5][6],但究竟哪些动作最能导致球权转换?球队的站位对球权恢复有何影响?哪些球员在受压时更常出现失误?我们能否评估那些未必像上述球队那样对持球球员实施高强度逼抢的球队的防守动态?本文利用Statsbomb 360°数据,通过构建广义动作型球权恢复模型(GABR),尝试回答这些问题及其他相关问题。