Investigations into using visualization to improve Bayesian reasoning and advance risk communication have produced mixed results, suggesting that cognitive ability might affect how users perform with different presentation formats. Our work examines the cognitive load elicited when solving Bayesian problems using icon arrays, text, and a juxtaposition of text and icon arrays. We used a three-pronged approach to capture a nuanced picture of cognitive demand and measure differences in working memory capacity, performance under divided attention using a dual-task paradigm, and subjective ratings of self-reported effort. We found that individuals with low working memory capacity made fewer errors and experienced less subjective workload when the problem contained an icon array compared to text alone, showing that visualization improves accuracy while exerting less cognitive demand. We believe these findings can considerably impact accessible risk communication, especially for individuals with low working memory capacity.

翻译：关于利用可视化改善贝叶斯推理并推进风险沟通的研究结果不一，这表明认知能力可能影响用户在不同呈现形式下的表现。本研究考察了使用图标阵列、纯文本以及文本-图标阵列并列形式解决贝叶斯问题时引发的认知负荷。我们采用三管齐下的方法捕捉认知需求的细微图景：测量工作记忆容量差异、通过双任务范式评估分散注意力下的表现，以及记录自我报告的主观努力评级。研究发现，当问题中包含图标阵列时，低工作记忆容量个体相较于纯文本形式犯更少错误、体验更少主观负荷——这表明可视化在降低认知需求的同时提升了准确性。我们认为这些发现将对可访问的风险沟通产生重要影响，尤其对低工作记忆容量群体而言。