To assess the potential of wind energy in a specific area, statistical distribution functions are commonly used to characterize wind speed distributions. The selection of an appropriate wind speed model is crucial in minimizing wind power estimation errors. In this paper, we propose a novel method that utilizes the T-X family of continuous distributions to generate two new wind speed distribution functions, which have not been previously explored in the wind energy literature. These two statistical distributions, namely the Weibull-three parameters-log-logistic (WE3-LL3) and log-logistic-three parameters-Weibull (LL3-WE3) are compared with four other probability density functions (PDFs) to analyze wind speed data collected in Tabriz, Iran. The parameters of the considered distributions are estimated using maximum likelihood estimators with the Nelder-Mead numerical method. The suitability of the proposed distributions for the actual wind speed data is evaluated based on criteria such as root mean square errors, coefficient of determination, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and chi-square test. The analysis results indicate that the LL3-WE3 distribution demonstrates generally superior performance in capturing seasonal and annual wind speed data, except for summer, while the WE3-LL3 distribution exhibits the best fit for summer. It is also observed that both the LL3-WE3 and WE3-LL3 distributions effectively describe wind speed data in terms of the wind power density error criterion. Overall, the LL3-WE3 and WE3-LL3 models offer a highly accurate fit compared to other PDFs for estimating wind energy potential.
翻译:为评估特定区域的风能潜力,统计分布函数常被用于表征风速分布特征。选择适当的风速模型对于最小化风电功率估算误差至关重要。本文提出一种创新方法,利用连续分布的T-X族生成两种此前在风电文献中未被探索的新型风速分布函数。这两种统计分布——三参数Weibull-三参数对数逻辑分布(WE3-LL3)与三参数对数逻辑-三参数Weibull分布(LL3-WE3)——与四种其他概率密度函数(PDFs)进行对比,用于分析伊朗大不里士采集的风速数据。采用基于Nelder-Mead数值方法的极大似然估计法估计各分布参数。通过均方根误差、决定系数、Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验和卡方检验等准则,评估所提分布对实际风速数据的适用性。分析结果表明:LL3-WE3分布在捕捉季节性与年度风速数据(夏季除外)方面总体表现更优,而WE3-LL3分布对夏季数据拟合最佳。同时发现,在风功率密度误差准则下,LL3-WE3与WE3-LL3分布均能有效描述风速数据。总体而言,相较于其他PDFs,LL3-WE3和WE3-LL3模型在风能潜力估算中展现出高精度拟合能力。