Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.

翻译：公众讨论常将AI暴露型职业就业前景恶化与2022年底ChatGPT的发布相关联。通过分析美国月度失业保险记录，我们测量了特定职业与地区的失业风险，发现AI暴露型职业的风险自2022年初便开始上升，早于ChatGPT发布数月。对数百万领英档案的分析显示，2021年及之后的毕业生群体进入AI暴露型职业的比例低于早期毕业生群体，且这一差距在2022年底前已开始显现。最后，通过对数百万份大学课程大纲的研究，我们发现修读更多AI相关课程的毕业生在ChatGPT发布后获得的首份工作薪酬更高、求职周期更短。这些结果共同表明，存在早于生成式AI出现的影响因素，同时也揭示了LLM相关教育的持续价值。