In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique point in both space and time, allowing us to assess the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors by fitting a spatio-temporal separable Poisson point process model, with a particular focus on the role of land usage. First, a spatial log-linear Poisson model is applied to investigate the influence of land use types on wildfire distribution, controlling for other environmental covariates. The results highlight the significant effect of human activities, altitude, and slope on spatial fire occurrence. Then, a Generalized Additive Model with Poisson-distributed response further explores the temporal dynamics of wildfire occurrences, confirming their dependence on various environmental variables, including the maximum daily temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and total precipitation.

翻译：2023年，西西里岛面临着日益严重的失控火灾问题，亟需对其时空动态机制进行深入探究。本研究基于点过程理论展开系统性分析。我们将每起野火视为时空域中的独立事件，通过拟合时空可分离泊松点过程模型——特别聚焦于土地利用类型的作用——评估环境因素与人为因素对火灾发生的影响。首先，应用空间对数线性泊松模型（控制其他环境协变量）探究土地利用类型对野火分布的影响。研究结果凸显了人类活动、海拔高度及坡度对火灾空间分布的重要作用。其次，采用具有泊松分布响应的广义加性模型进一步解析野火发生的时序动态，证实其与多种环境变量的关联性，包括日最高气温、风速、地表气压及总降水量。