Cryptocurrency markets often face manipulation through prevalent pump-and-dump (P&D) schemes, where self-organized Telegram groups, some exceeding two million members, artificially inflate target cryptocurrency prices. These groups sell premium access to inside information, worsening information asymmetry and financial risks for subscribers and all investors. This paper presents a real-time prediction pipeline to forecast target coins and alert investors to possible P&D schemes. In a Poloniex case study, the model accurately identified the target coin among the top five from 50 random coins in 24 out of 43 (55.81%) P&D events. The pipeline uses advanced natural language processing (NLP) to classify Telegram messages, identifying 2,079 past pump events and detecting new ones in real-time.
翻译:加密货币市场常面临拉高出货(P&D)骗局的操纵,这些由自组织Telegram群组(部分成员超两百万)人为推高目标加密货币价格。这些群组通过出售内部信息的高级访问权限,加剧了订阅者及所有投资者的信息不对称与金融风险。本文提出一种实时预测流程,用于预测目标代币并向投资者警示潜在的P&D骗局。在Poloniex案例研究中,该模型在43次P&D事件中的24次(55.81%)准确从50个随机代币中识别出前五名目标代币。该流程采用先进自然语言处理(NLP)技术对Telegram消息进行分类,已识别2,079次历史拉盘事件,并能实时检测新发事件。