Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the center of policy, market, and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the current AI wave is captured in US national accounts, combining a simple macro-accounting framework with a stylized description of the AI production process. We highlight the crucial role played by data centers, which constitute the backbone of the AI ecosystem and have attracted formidable investment in 2025, as they are indispensable for meeting the rapidly increasing worldwide demand for AI services. We document that the boom in IT and AI-related capital expenditure in the first three quarters of the year has given an outsized boost to aggregate demand, while its contribution to GDP growth is smaller once the high import content of AI hardware is netted out. Furthermore, simple calculations suggest that, at current utilization rates and pricing, the production of services originating in new AI data centers could contribute to GDP over the turn of the next quarters on a scale comparable to that of investment spending to date. Short reinvestment cycles and uncertainty about future AI demand, while not currently acting as a macroeconomic drag, can nevertheless fuel macroeconomic risks over the medium term.

翻译：人工智能已跃居政策、市场和学术讨论的核心，但其宏观经济影响仍未被完全理解。本文结合简化的宏观核算框架与人工智能生产过程的典型化描述，系统阐释当前人工智能浪潮在美国国民经济核算中的体现。我们着重强调数据中心的关键作用——作为人工智能生态系统的支柱，数据中心在2025年吸引了巨额投资，对于满足全球对人工智能服务快速增长的需求不可或缺。研究数据表明，本年度前三季度信息技术及人工智能相关资本支出的激增对总需求产生了超常拉动，但在剔除人工智能硬件的高进口含量后，其对GDP增长的贡献则相对有限。进一步测算显示，在当前利用率和定价水平下，新建人工智能数据中心产生的服务产出，可能在接下来几个季度对GDP的贡献达到与迄今投资支出相当的规模。尽管短期再投资周期和未来人工智能需求的不确定性尚未对宏观经济产生拖累，但仍可能在中长期内加剧宏观经济风险。