In the past few years, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting methods have widely demonstrated strong competitiveness among the weather forecasting systems. However, these methods are insufficient for high-spatial-resolution short-term nowcasting within 6 hours, which is crucial for warning short-duration, mesoscale and small-scale weather events. Geostationary satellite remote sensing provides detailed, high spatio-temporal and all-day observations, which can address the above limitations of existing methods. Therefore, this paper proposed an advanced data-driven thermal infrared cloud images forecasting model, "DaYu." Unlike existing data-driven weather forecasting models, DaYu is specifically designed for geostationary satellite observations, with a temporal resolution of 0.5 hours and a spatial resolution of ${0.05}^\circ$ $\times$ ${0.05}^\circ$. DaYu is based on a large-scale transformer architecture, which enables it to capture fine-grained cloud structures and learn fast-changing spatio-temporal evolution features effectively. Moreover, its attention mechanism design achieves a balance in computational complexity, making it practical for applications. DaYu not only achieves accurate forecasts up to 3 hours with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.9, 6 hours higher than 0.8, and 12 hours higher than 0.7, but also detects short-duration, mesoscale, and small-scale weather events with enhanced detail, effectively addressing the shortcomings of existing methods in providing detailed short-term nowcasting within 6 hours. Furthermore, DaYu has significant potential in short-term climate disaster prevention and mitigation.

翻译：近年来，基于人工智能（AI）的天气预报方法在天气预报系统中已广泛展现出强大的竞争力。然而，这些方法对于6小时以内的高空间分辨率短期临近预报能力不足，而此类预报对于预警短时、中尺度和小尺度天气事件至关重要。地球静止卫星遥感提供了详尽、高时空分辨率且全天候的观测数据，能够弥补现有方法的上述局限。为此，本文提出了一种先进的数据驱动热红外云图预报模型"DaYu"。与现有的数据驱动天气预报模型不同，DaYu专门针对地球静止卫星观测设计，其时间分辨率为0.5小时，空间分辨率为${0.05}^\circ$ $\times$ ${0.05}^\circ$。DaYu基于大规模Transformer架构，使其能够捕捉细粒度云结构并有效学习快速变化的时空演变特征。此外，其注意力机制设计实现了计算复杂度的平衡，使其具备实际应用可行性。DaYu不仅在3小时预报中达到相关系数高于0.9的精度，6小时高于0.8，12小时高于0.7，还能以增强的细节检测短时、中尺度及小尺度天气事件，有效解决了现有方法在提供6小时内详细短期临近预报方面的不足。此外，DaYu在短期气候防灾减灾领域具有显著的应用潜力。