Rapid advances in AI are beginning to reshape national security. Destabilizing AI developments could rupture the balance of power and raise the odds of great-power conflict, while widespread proliferation of capable AI hackers and virologists would lower barriers for rogue actors to cause catastrophe. Superintelligence -- AI vastly better than humans at nearly all cognitive tasks -- is now anticipated by AI researchers. Just as nations once developed nuclear strategies to secure their survival, we now need a coherent superintelligence strategy to navigate a new period of transformative change. We introduce the concept of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM): a deterrence regime resembling nuclear mutual assured destruction (MAD) where any state's aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals. Given the relative ease of sabotaging a destabilizing AI project -- through interventions ranging from covert cyberattacks to potential kinetic strikes on datacenters -- MAIM already describes the strategic picture AI superpowers find themselves in. Alongside this, states can increase their competitiveness by bolstering their economies and militaries through AI, and they can engage in nonproliferation to rogue actors to keep weaponizable AI capabilities out of their hands. Taken together, the three-part framework of deterrence, nonproliferation, and competitiveness outlines a robust strategy to superintelligence in the years ahead.

翻译：人工智能的快速发展正开始重塑国家安全格局。破坏性的人工智能进展可能打破力量平衡并增加大国冲突的可能性，而具备强大能力的人工智能黑客和病毒学家的广泛扩散将降低恶意行为者引发灾难的门槛。超级智能——即在几乎所有认知任务上远超人类的人工智能——现已被人工智能研究者所预见。正如各国曾制定核战略以确保生存，我们现在需要一个连贯的超级智能战略来应对这场变革性的新时期。我们引入"相互确保人工智能故障"（MAIM）的概念：这是一种类似于核相互确保摧毁（MAD）的威慑机制，即任何国家试图单方面主导人工智能的侵略性行为都将遭到竞争对手的预防性破坏。鉴于破坏一个不稳定的人工智能项目相对容易——干预手段涵盖从隐蔽网络攻击到对数据中心可能的物理打击——MAIM已然描述了人工智能强国所处的战略态势。与此同时，各国可通过人工智能增强经济和军事实力以提升竞争力，并可通过防扩散措施防止武器化人工智能能力落入恶意行为者手中。综上所述，由威慑、防扩散和竞争力构成的三位一体框架，为未来数年的超级智能发展勾勒出稳健的战略路径。