It is important to maintain the resilient international food trade network for food security. We have constructed the international trade networks of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat based on bilateral flows data between economies. Drawing on information theory, we have measured their dynamic resilience based on efficiency and redundancy during 1986 to 2022. We have also investigated the impact of economies and relationships on their resilience. Overall, we argue that rice and soybean trade networks deserve more attention while resilience in maize and wheat shows a steady upward trend. Meanwhile, our findings emphasize the importance of diversity of trade flows and partners for enhancing resilience. Currently, for example, excessively high monopolization of soybean trade may not be beneficial for its resilience. Also, we have found that major exporters and relationships between geographically bordering economies have greater impact on the resilience. Moreover, we have confirmed the existence of different network structures with the optimal resilience as relationships are removed cumulatively, which may be an informative guide for the international food trade.
翻译:维持具有韧性的国际粮食贸易网络对粮食安全至关重要。我们基于经济体间的双边流量数据,构建了玉米、大米、大豆和小麦的国际贸易网络。借鉴信息论方法,我们基于1986年至2022年期间的效率与冗余度测算了其动态韧性,并探究了经济体和贸易关系对韧性的影响。总体而言,我们认为大米和大豆贸易网络值得更多关注,而玉米和小麦贸易网络的韧性则呈现稳步上升趋势。同时,我们的研究结果强调了贸易流量和合作伙伴多样性对提升韧性的重要性。例如,当前大豆贸易过高的垄断程度可能不利于其韧性。此外,我们发现主要出口国以及地理相邻经济体间的贸易关系对韧性具有更大影响。我们还证实,随着贸易关系被逐步移除,存在具有最优韧性的不同网络结构,这可能为国际粮食贸易提供有益的指导。