项目名称： 复杂河网系统突发性水污染风险时空变异及其对水文条件变化的响应

项目编号： No.41471014

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 李大勇

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 76万元

中文摘要： 针对太湖流域河网系统水文条件变化复杂致使突发性水污染事故在污染范围和污染对象上更具有不确定性的特点，本研究以长荡湖流域为研究对象，以太湖流域突发性水污染主要形式-非正常大量排放废水事故为研究切入点，从多污染源排污的不确定性入手，采用多学科交叉研究手段，建立复杂河网区突发性水污染风险仿真与综合评估模型，开展突发性水污染风险时空变异及其对水文条件变化的响应研究。以不同典型年水利工程联合调控下模型计算成果为基础，分析水质超标风险、健康风险与水环境综合风险概率分布的时空变异特征，研究水文要素的时空变化规律，探索污染风险在河网系统内的传递特性与叠加特性，揭示水利工程联合调控下水文条件变化与突发性水污染风险概率时空分布的互动关系及响应机制，为融合河网区突发性水污染中的各种不确定性提供了一种有效手段，为河网区突发性水污染事故的预防与控制决策提供科学支撑。

中文关键词： 复杂河网系统；风险变异；突发性水污染；水文条件；响应机制

英文摘要： As the variation of hydrological conditions is very complicated in river network system of Taihu Lake basin, the accidental water pollution has more uncertainties on the polluted scope and the polluted objects. Taking the Changdang Lake basin as the study object, the accidental discharging pollutant cases as the study breakthrough, starting from randomly discharging of multiple pollutant sources and adopting the multi-disciplinary research methods, the simulation and evaluation model of the accidental water pollution risks in river network is established integrating stochastic algorithms, the numerical simulation method coupling water quantity and water quality and the fuzzy representation model for risk consequence. On the basis of the model simulation results under the combined dispatching in different typical years, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the probability distribution for the overproof water quality risk, the health risk and the comprehensive water environment risk are analyzed, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the different hydrological factors is discussed. The transfer and superposition characteristic of the accidental water pollution risk in river network system is explored. The interaction and response mechanism of hydrological element variation and pollution risk probability distribution in space and time under hydraulic engineering combining regulation is finally revealed. The research results provide an effective tool for merging the uncertainties during the accidental water pollution, and provide technical support for the prevention and control decision of the accidental water pollution in complex river network area.

英文关键词： complex river network system;risk variability;accidental water pollution;hydrological condtion;response mechanism