In this study, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is employed for downscaling the precipitation (PREC), maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) over Krishna River Basin (KRB). The Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were considered as predictor variables. First, the SDSM is calibrated using 30-years (1961-1990) of data and subsequently validated for 15-years (1991-2005). Upon perceiving the satisfactory performance, the SDSM is further used for projecting the predictand variables (PRECP, T max and T min ) for the 21 st century considering three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future period is divided into three 30-year time slices named epoch-1 (2011-2040), epoch-2 (2041-2070) and epoch-3 (2071-2100) respectively. Further, 1976-2005 is considered as baseline period and all the future results are compared with this data. The results were analysed at various temporal scales, i.e., monthly, seasonal and annual. The study reveals that the KRB is going to become wetter during all the seasons. The results are discussed for the worst-case scenario i.e., RCP8.5 epoch-3. The average annual maximum and minimum temperature is expected to increase. The extreme event analysis is also carried out considering the 90 th and 95 th percentile values. It is noticed that the extreme (90 th and 95 th percentiles) are going to increase. There are events more than extreme values. The outcome of this study can be used in flood modelling for the KRB and also for the modelling of future irrigation demands along with the planning of optimal irrigation in the KRB culturable command area.

翻译：本研究采用统计降尺度模型（SDSM）对克里希纳河流域（KRB）的降水（PREC）、最高温度（T max）和最低温度（T min）进行降尺度分析。选取加拿大地球系统模型第二版（CanESM2）全球环流模型（GCM）的输出作为预测变量。首先，利用30年（1961-1990）数据对SDSM进行校准，随后通过15年（1991-2005）数据对其进行验证。确认模型性能满意后，进一步基于三种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5），运用SDSM对21世纪的预测变量（PRECP、T max和T min）进行预估。未来时段被划分为三个30年时间片：第一纪元（2011-2040年）、第二纪元（2041-2070年）和第三纪元（2071-2100年）。同时，以1976-2005年作为基准期，所有未来结果均与此数据进行对比。研究在月、季节和年际等不同时间尺度上分析结果。结果表明，克里希纳河流域所有季节都将变得更加湿润。本文重点讨论了最坏情景（即RCP8.5第三纪元）下的结果：预计年平均最高和最低温度均将上升。此外，基于第90百分位和第95百分位值开展了极端事件分析，发现极端值（第90和第95百分位）也将增加，且存在超出极端值的事件。本研究结果可用于克里希纳河流域的洪水模拟、未来灌溉需水量建模以及流域可灌溉区最优灌溉规划。