This study introduces a new framework for analyzing capacity dynamics and throughput performance in Low Earth Orbit satellite networks (LSNs). It focuses on addressing critical gaps in existing models, particularly those concerning unreliable ISLs. Our work systematically resolves two inherent deficiencies in prior research: (1) the conflation of network capacity with maximum throughput, the latter being highly dependent on routing policies and thus failing to reflect the intrinsic characteristics of the system; and (2) the overestimation problem in flow network based throughput calculations, which often generate flow paths that are inconsistent with actual traffic paths. To address these issues, we develop the CAP-uLSN (Capacity under unstable LEO satellites networks) model to characterize time-varying network capacity under stochastic ISL availability. Furthermore, we propose a Monte Carlo Throughput Estimation (MCTE) framework that probabilistically evaluates aggregate throughput performance under dynamic traffic patterns and diverse routing schemes. These insights derived from the CAP-uLSN model and MCTE framework, provide theoretical guidance for optimizing routing schemes (e.g., path selection under throughput fluctuations) and designing adaptive billing models (e.g., distance-based pricing) in future LEO satellite networks.

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