This paper presents a large-scale analysis of the cryptocurrency community on Reddit, shedding light on the intricate relationship between the evolution of their activity, emotional dynamics, and price movements. We analyze over 130M posts on 122 cryptocurrency-related subreddits using temporal analysis, statistical modeling, and emotion detection. While /r/CryptoCurrency and /r/dogecoin are the most active subreddits, we find an overall surge in cryptocurrency-related activity in 2021, followed by a sharp decline. We also uncover a strong relationship in terms of cross-correlation between online activity and the price of various coins, with the changes in the number of posts mostly leading the price changes. Backtesting analysis shows that a straightforward strategy based on the cross-correlation where one buys/sells a coin if the daily number of posts about it is greater/less than the previous would have led to a 3x return on investment. Finally, we shed light on the emotional dynamics of the cryptocurrency communities, finding that joy becomes a prominent indicator during upward market performance, while a decline in the market manifests an increase in anger.

翻译：本文对Reddit平台上的加密货币社区进行了大规模分析，揭示了其活动演化、情感动态与价格波动之间的复杂关联。我们运用时间序列分析、统计建模和情感检测技术，对122个加密货币相关子论坛中超过1.3亿条帖子进行了研究。尽管/r/CryptoCurrency和/r/dogecoin是最活跃的子论坛，但我们发现2021年加密货币相关活动整体激增后急剧下降。同时，我们揭示了在线活动与各类代币价格之间的强交叉相关性，其中帖子数量变化对价格变化具有显著的先行引导作用。回测分析表明，基于这种交叉相关性构建的简单策略——当日均发帖量高于/低于前一交易日时买入/卖出相应代币——可获得3倍投资回报率。最后，我们阐释了加密货币社区的情感动态特征：市场上涨时快乐情绪成为突出指标，而市场下跌则表现为愤怒情绪的升级。