eBay partners with external vendors, which allows customers to freely select a vendor to complete their eBay experiences. However, vendor outages can hinder customer experiences. Consequently, eBay can disable a problematic vendor to prevent customer loss. Disabling the vendor too late risks losing customers willing to switch to other vendors, while disabling it too early risks losing those unwilling to switch. In this paper, we propose a data-driven solution to answer whether eBay should disable a problematic vendor and when to disable it. Our solution involves forecasting customer behavior. First, we use a multiplicative seasonality model to represent behavior if all vendors are fully functioning. Next, we use a Monte Carlo simulation to represent behavior if the problematic vendor remains enabled. Finally, we use a linear model to represent behavior if the vendor is disabled. By comparing these forecasts, we determine the optimal time for eBay to disable the problematic vendor.

翻译：eBay 与外部供应商合作，允许客户自由选择供应商来完成其 eBay 体验。然而，供应商的服务中断可能会影响客户体验。因此，eBay 可以禁用有问题的供应商以防止客户流失。禁用过晚会面临愿意转向其他供应商的客户流失的风险，而禁用过早则会面临不愿转换的客户流失的风险。在本文中，我们提出了一种数据驱动的解决方案，以回答 eBay 是否应禁用有问题的供应商以及何时禁用它。我们的解决方案涉及预测客户行为。首先，我们使用一个乘法季节性模型来表示所有供应商均正常运行时的行为。接着，我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟来表示有问题的供应商保持启用状态时的行为。最后，我们使用一个线性模型来表示供应商被禁用时的行为。通过比较这些预测，我们确定了 eBay 禁用有问题供应商的最佳时机。