As Low Earth Orbit (LEO) become mega-constellations critical infrastructure, attacks targeting them have grown in number and range. The security analysis of LEO constellations faces a fundamental paradigm gap: traditional topology-centric methods fail to capture systemic risks arising from dynamic load imbalances and high-order dependencies, which can transform localized failures into network-wide cascades. To address this, we propose HYDRA, a hypergraph-based dynamic risk analysis framework. Its core is a novel metric, Hyper-Bridge Centrality (HBC), which quantifies node criticality via a load-to-redundancy ratio within dependency structures. A primary challenge to resilience: the most critical vulnerabilities are not in the densely connected satellite core, but in the seemingly marginal ground-space interfaces. These are the system's "Black Swan" nodes--topologically peripheral yet structurally lethal. We validate this through extensive simulations using realistic StarLink TLE data and population-based gravity model. Experiments demonstrate that HBC consistently outperforms traditional metrics, identifying critical failure points that surpass the structural damage potential of even betweenness centrality. This work shifts the security paradigm from connectivity to structural stress, demonstrating that securing the network edge is paramount and necessitates a fundamental redesign of redundancy strategies.

翻译：随着低地球轨道（LEO）卫星网络发展成为关键基础设施的巨型星座，针对它们的攻击在数量和范围上不断增长。LEO星座的安全分析面临一个根本性的范式差距：传统的以拓扑为中心的方法无法捕捉由动态负载失衡和高阶依赖关系引发的系统性风险，这些风险可将局部故障转化为全网级联失效。为解决此问题，我们提出了HYDRA，一个基于超图的动态风险分析框架。其核心是一个新颖的度量指标——超桥中心性（HBC），该指标通过依赖结构内的负载与冗余比率来量化节点关键性。系统韧性的一个主要挑战在于：最关键漏洞并非位于密集连接的卫星核心，而是存在于看似边缘的星地接口中。这些是系统的“黑天鹅”节点——拓扑上处于边缘，却在结构上具有致命性。我们使用真实的星链TLE数据和基于人口的重力模型，通过大量仿真验证了这一观点。实验表明，HBC始终优于传统度量指标，能识别出关键故障点，其结构破坏潜力甚至超越了介数中心性。这项工作将安全范式从连通性转向结构应力，证明保障网络边缘安全至关重要，并需要对冗余策略进行根本性的重新设计。