Stroke is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide but it is believed to be highly preventable. The majority of stroke prevention focuses on targeting high-risk individuals but its is important to understand how the targeting of high-risk individuals might impact the overall societal burden of stroke. We propose using an agent-based model that follows agents through their pre-stroke and stroke journey to assess the impacts of different interventions at the population level. We present a case study looking at the impacts of agents being informed of their stroke risk at certain ages and those agents taking measure to reduce their risk. The results of our study show that if agents are aware of their risk and act accordingly we see a significant reduction in strokes and population DALYs. The case study highlights the importance of individuals understanding their own stroke risk for stroke prevention and the usefulness of agent-based models in assessing the impact of stroke interventions.

翻译：脑卒中是全球范围内导致死亡和残疾的主要原因之一，但普遍认为其具有高度可预防性。当前卒中预防主要针对高风险个体，但理解针对高风险个体的干预措施如何影响整体社会卒中负担至关重要。本研究提出采用智能体模型，通过追踪智能体在卒中前及卒中过程中的状态演变，评估不同干预措施在人群层面的影响。我们通过案例研究，探讨智能体在特定年龄阶段获知卒中风险信息后采取风险降低措施的效果。研究结果表明，当智能体认知自身风险并采取相应行动时，卒中的发生率和人群伤残调整生命年（DALYs）均显著下降。该案例研究揭示了个人认知自身卒中风险对卒中预防的重要性，同时验证了智能体模型在评估卒中干预措施效果方面的实用价值。