The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.

翻译：全球平均地表温度被广泛用于监测气候变化。当前的一个核心争议是，自20世纪70年代以来，全球变暖速率是否出现显著加速/激增。本文从统计学角度探讨变暖速率加速是否可被检测。我们采用变点模型（changepoint models）——一种专门用于识别时间序列结构变化的统计技术，分析了1850-2023年间四组全球平均地表温度记录。研究结果显示，变暖加速的证据有限；在多数地表温度时间序列中，未检测到20世纪70年代后变暖速率的显著变化。据此，我们估算了未来能够检测到变暖加速趋所需的最小趋势变化幅度。