This paper introduces a novel measure of software innovation based on open source software (OSS) development activity on GitHub. We examine the dependency growth and release complexity among $\sim$200,000 unique releases from 28,000 unique packages across the JavaScript, Python, and Ruby ecosystems over two years post-release. We find that major versions show differential, strong prediction of one-year lagged log change in dependencies. In addition, semantic versioning of OSS releases is correlated with their complexity and predict downstream adoption. We conclude that major releases of OSS packages count as a unit of innovation complementary to scientific publications, patents, and standards, offering applications for policymakers, managers, and researchers.

翻译：本文提出了一种基于GitHub开源软件开发活动的新型软件创新度量方法。我们追踪了JavaScript、Python和Ruby生态系统中28,000个独立软件包约200,000个独特版本在发布后两年内的依赖增长与发布复杂度变化。研究发现，主要版本对依赖项对数变化的一年滞后值具有差异化且显著的预测能力。此外，开源软件发布的语义版本控制与其复杂度相关，并能预测下游采用情况。我们得出结论：开源软件包的主要发布可作为创新计量单元，与科学出版物、专利和标准形成互补，为政策制定者、管理者和研究者提供应用价值。