Climate change is one of the key topics in climate science. However, previous research has predominantly concentrated on changes in mean values, and few research examines changes in Probability Distribution Function (PDF). In this study, a novel method called Wasserstein Stability Analysis (WSA) is developed to identify PDF changes, especially the extreme event shift and non-linear physical value constraint variation in climate change. WSA is applied to 21st-century warming slowdown period and is compared with traditional mean-value trend analysis. The result indicates that despite no significant trend, the central-eastern Pacific experienced a decline in hot extremes and an increase in cold extremes, indicating a La Nina-like temperature shift. Further analysis at two Arctic locations suggests sea ice severely restricts the hot extremes of surface air temperature. This impact is diminishing as sea ice melts. Overall, based on detecting PDF changes, WSA is a useful method for re-discovering climate change.

翻译：气候变化是气候科学中的核心议题之一。然而，以往研究主要集中于均值变化，鲜有研究探讨概率分布函数（PDF）的变化。本研究提出了一种名为Wasserstein稳定性分析（WSA）的新方法，用于识别PDF变化，特别是气候变化中的极端事件偏移和非线性物理值约束变化。我们将WSA应用于21世纪全球变暖停滞期，并与传统的均值趋势分析进行了比较。结果表明，尽管趋势不显著，但中东太平洋地区经历了极端高温事件的减少和极端低温事件的增加，呈现出类似拉尼娜现象的温度偏移。对北极两个地点的进一步分析表明，海冰严重限制了地表气温的极端高温事件，而这一影响正随着海冰融化而逐渐减弱。总体而言，基于对PDF变化的检测，WSA是一种重新发现气候变化的有用方法。