This study evaluates the effectiveness of the two-for-one strategy in basketball by applying a causal inference framework to play-by-play data from the 2018-19 and 2021-22 National Basketball Association regular seasons. Incorporating factors such as player lineup, betting odds, and player ratings, we compute the average treatment effect and find that the two-for-one strategy has a positive impact on game outcomes, suggesting it can benefit teams when employed effectively. Additionally, we investigate potential heterogeneity in the strategy's effectiveness using the causal forest framework, with tests indicating no significant variation across different contexts. These findings offer valuable insights into the tactical advantages of the two-for-one strategy in professional basketball.

翻译：本研究通过将因果推断框架应用于2018-19赛季和2021-22赛季美国职业篮球联赛常规赛的逐回合比赛数据，评估了篮球比赛中“二换一”策略的有效性。结合球员阵容、博彩赔率和球员评分等因素，我们计算了平均处理效应，发现“二换一”策略对比赛结果具有积极影响，表明该策略若有效运用可为球队带来收益。此外，我们运用因果森林框架探究了该策略效果可能存在的异质性，检验结果表明不同情境下未出现显著差异。这些发现为理解“二换一”策略在职业篮球中的战术优势提供了重要见解。