Major challenges of assisting passengers to safely and quickly escape from ships when an emergency occurs, include complex realistic features such as human behavior uncertainty, dynamic human traversal times, and the computation and communication delays in the systems that offer advice to users during an emergency. In this paper, we present simulations that examine the influence of these key features on evacuation performance in terms of evacuation time. The approach is based on our previously proposed lookup table-based ship passenger evacuation method, i.e., ANT. The simulation results we present show that delays in the users' reception of instructions significantly impair the effectiveness of the evacuation service. In contrast, behavior uncertainty has a weaker influence on the performance of the navigation method. In addition, these effects also vary with the extent of the behavior uncertainty, the dynamics of the traversal time distributions, and the delay in receiving directions. These findings demonstrate the importance of carefully designing evacuation systems for passenger ships in a way that takes into account all realistic features of the ship's indoor evacuation environment, including the crucial role of information technology.
翻译:当紧急情况发生时,协助乘客安全快速逃离船舶的主要挑战包括复杂的现实特征,如人类行为不确定性、动态的人类通行时间,以及紧急情况下向用户提供建议系统的计算和通信延迟。本文通过仿真模拟,考察了这些关键特征对疏散性能(以疏散时间为指标)的影响。该方法基于我们先前提出的基于查找表的船舶乘客疏散方法,即ANT。仿真结果表明,用户接收指令的延迟会显著削弱疏散服务的有效性。相比之下,行为不确定性对导航方法性能的影响较弱。此外,这些效应还会随行为不确定程度、通行时间分布的动态变化以及接收指示的延迟程度而变化。这些发现表明,在设计船舶疏散系统时,必须充分考虑船舶室内疏散环境的所有现实特征,包括信息技术的关键作用。