AI and related technologies are reshaping jobs and tasks, either by automating or augmenting human skills in the workplace. Many researchers have been working on estimating if and to what extent jobs and tasks are exposed to the risk of being automatized by AI-related technologies. Our work tackles this issue through a data-driven approach by: (i) developing a reproducible framework that uses cutting-edge open-source large language models to assess the current capabilities of AI and robotics in performing job-related tasks; (ii) formalizing and computing a measure of AI exposure by occupation, the Task Exposure to AI (TEAI) index, and a measure of Task Replacement by AI (TRAI), both validated through a human user evaluation and compared with the state of the art. Our results show that the TEAI index is positively correlated with cognitive, problem-solving and management skills, while it is negatively correlated with social skills. Applying the index to the US, we obtain that about one-third of US employment is highly exposed to AI, primarily in high-skill jobs requiring a graduate or postgraduate level of education. We also find that AI exposure is positively associated with both employment and wage growth in 2003-2023, suggesting that AI has an overall positive effect on productivity. Considering specifically the TRAI index, we find that even in high-skill occupations, AI exhibits high variability in task substitution, suggesting that AI and humans complement each other within the same occupation, while the allocation of tasks within occupations is likely to change. All results, models, and code are freely available online to allow the community to reproduce our results, compare outcomes, and use our work as a benchmark to monitor AI's progress over time.

翻译：人工智能及相关技术正在重塑工作岗位与任务，通过自动化或增强工作场所中的人类技能。许多研究者致力于评估工作岗位与任务是否以及多大程度上暴露于被AI相关技术自动化的风险之中。我们的研究通过数据驱动方法解决这一问题：（i）开发了一个可复现的框架，利用前沿的开源大语言模型评估AI与机器人当前执行工作相关任务的能力；（ii）形式化并计算了按职业划分的AI暴露度量——任务对AI暴露指数，以及任务被AI替代度量，二者均通过人工用户评估验证，并与现有最优方法进行了比较。我们的结果表明，TEAI指数与认知、问题解决及管理技能呈正相关，而与社交技能呈负相关。将该指数应用于美国数据，我们发现约三分之一的美国就业岗位高度暴露于AI，主要集中在需要研究生或更高学历的高技能岗位。我们还发现2003-2023年间，AI暴露与就业及工资增长均呈正相关，表明AI对生产力具有整体积极影响。特别考察TRAI指数时，我们发现即使在高技能职业中，AI的任务替代性也表现出高度变异性，这表明AI与人类在同一职业内形成互补关系，而职业内部的任务分配可能会发生变化。所有结果、模型及代码均已在线公开，以便学界复现我们的结果、比较不同产出，并将我们的工作作为基准来持续追踪AI的发展进程。