Coffee tree leaf rust is a prevalent botanical disease that causes a worldwide reduction in coffee supply and its quality, leading to immense economic losses. While several pandemic intervention policies (PIPs) for tackling this pandemic are commercially available, they seem to provide only partial epidemiological relief for farmers. In this work, we develop a high-resolution economical-epidemiological model that captures the pandemic's spread in coffee tree farms and its associated economic impact. Through extensive simulations for the case of Colombia, a country that consists mostly of small-size coffee farms and is the second-largest coffee producer in the world, our results show that it is economically impractical to sustain any profit without directly tackling the pandemic. Furthermore, even in the hypothetical case where farmers perfectly know their farm's epidemiological state and the weather in advance, any pandemic-related efforts can only amount to a limited profit of roughly 4% on investment. In the more realistic case, any pandemic-related efforts are expected to result in economic losses, indicating that major disturbances in the coffee market are anticipated.

翻译：咖啡树叶锈病是一种普遍存在的植物病害，导致全球咖啡供应量及其品质下降，造成巨大的经济损失。尽管市面上有多种针对这一大流行的干预政策（PIPs）可供选择，但它们似乎仅为农民提供部分流行病学缓解。在本研究中，我们构建了一个高分辨率的经济学-流行病学模型，以捕捉该大流行在咖啡树种植园中的传播及其相关的经济影响。通过对哥伦比亚（该国主要由小型咖啡种植园组成，且是世界第二大咖啡生产国）进行广泛模拟，我们的结果表明，若不直接应对大流行，从经济角度而言维持任何利润都不可行。此外，即使在农民能够提前预知自家种植园的流行病学状态和天气的假设情况下，任何与大流行相关的努力也仅能带来有限收益，约为投资额的4%。在更现实的情况下，任何与大流行相关的努力预计将导致经济损失，这表明咖啡市场可能出现重大动荡。