We show that the epidemiological Renormalization Group (eRG) framework is a useful and minimal tool to effectively describe the temporal evolution of the Dengue multi-wave pandemics. We test the framework on the Dengue history of several countries located in both Latin America and Asia. We also observe a strong correlation between the total number of infected individuals and the changes in the local temperature. Our results further support the expectation that global warming is bound to increase the cases of Dengue worldwide. We then move to investigate, via the eRG, the recent outbreak in Fano, Italy and offer our projections.
翻译:我们证明,流行病学重正化群(eRG)框架是一种有效且极简的工具,能够准确描述登革热多波次大流行的时序演化规律。该框架在拉丁美洲与亚洲多个国家的登革热历史数据中得到验证。我们同时观察到感染总人数与当地气温变化之间存在显著相关性。研究结果进一步印证了全球变暖将导致全球登革热病例增加的预期。基于eRG框架,我们进而对意大利法诺市近期爆发的疫情展开研究并提出预测分析。